The Economic Survey 2023-24 has projected the real GDP growth at 6.5% – 7% for 2024-25, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the survey before the parliament. Globally, the economy achieved stability in 2023 despite geopolitical uncertainties, with a growth rate of 3.2% according to the IMF’s April 2024 World Economic Outlook.
According to the survey, India’s real GDP is projected to grow between 6.5–7% in 2024-25, with FY24 GDP 20% higher than pre-COVID levels. The Survey 2023-24 highlighted domestic growth drivers, despite global uncertainties, and noted a 6.6% average annual growth rate over the decade ending FY20.
The Survey warns that geopolitical conflicts may disrupt supply chains, raise commodity prices, and affect monetary policy. Global trade is expected to recover in 2024, with business, consultancy, and IT-enabled services exports expanding.
India’s economy grew by 8.2% in FY24, driven by stable consumption and investment demand. Agriculture, industry, and services sectors contributed 17.7%, 27.6%, and 54.7% to overall GVA, respectively. Manufacturing and construction sectors grew by 9.9% each.
GST collections and e-way bills showed double-digit growth in FY24. Financial and professional services have been major growth drivers post-pandemic. Gross Fixed Capital Formation ( GFCF ) by private non-financial corporations rose by 19.8% in FY23 and continued strong in FY24. Residential real estate sales reached a decade high in 2023, growing 33% YoY.
Gross tax revenue grew by 13.4% in FY24, with 15.8% growth in direct taxes and 10.6% in indirect taxes. Capital expenditure for FY24 was ₹9.5 lakh crore, a 28.2% YoY increase. State governments improved their finances, with a combined fiscal deficit of 2.8% of GDP, below the budgeted 3.1%.
The RBI’s actions have strengthened the banking system, with the GNPA ratio falling to 2.8% in March 2024, a 12-year low, stated the survey.
Further, the report stated that the Merchandise exports moderated in FY24, but service exports reached USD 341.1 billion. The Current Account Deficit improved to 0.7% of GDP from 2.0% in FY23. Forex reserves covered 11 months of projected imports, and the rupee remained stable.
The survey observed that the Direct Benefit Transfer ( DBT ) scheme has transferred ₹36.9 lakh crore since 2013. It was also noted that the all-India annual unemployment rate declined post-pandemic, with rising labour force participation. Female labour force participation increased from 23.3% in 2017-18 to 37% in 2022-23, driven by rural women’s participation.
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